COPSE: Coincident Probabilistic climate change weather data for a Sustainable built Environment

July 2008 to August 2011

Prof Geoff Levermore, University of Manchester

Aim: To develop a methodology for deriving weather data for building designers etc that is based on future data rather than observational records from the last 20 years or so.

Objectives:

  • To establish UKCP09 based outputs and design criteria for domestic and non-domestic buildings with a consistent weather data framework.
  • To develop methodologies for transforming UKCP09 based probabilistic data into building design data for practitioners, developing a new design reference year (DRY) (similar to the Exeter proposal) and novel coincident occurrence selection, taking into account the range of requirements and capabilities to be found in the practitioner community.
  • Develop means of modifying the data to reflect the urban heat island effect and the capability of generating building design data for any UK location utilising the UKCP09 weather generator.
  • Provide academic papers and draft explanatory literature appropriate for professional practitioners and suitable for use in training, including UKCP09 scenario ‘story lines’ specifically related to buildings and their implications for the future.
  • To assess the adaptation potential for carbon emission reduction from new and refurbished buildings, using the new methodology and data.
  • To ensure the relevance and utility of outputs through creating a strong stakeholder group (SG) with a network of corresponding members (CM), and to validate the form and content of outputs through case-studies of new-build and refurbishment projects identified with the aid of SG and CM members. The case studies will also be used to assess adaptation potential for carbon emission reduction.

June 2011 Meeting with the Scottish Government:

April 2011 Conference output:

September 2010 Joint stakeholder/researcher forum:

  • Matlab scripts forming the weather data generators developed at Northumbria University are available for Matlab users. Contact: Professor Chris Underwood.
  • Test Reference Years and other building design weather data for future climates derived from UKCP09 data may be provided by the University of Manchester. Contact: Professor Geoff Levermore.

Temperature data and building design weather datasets

  • Watkins, R., Levermore, G.J. and Parkinson, J.B. (2011). Constructing a future weather file for use in building simulation using UKCP09 projections. Building Services Engineering Research and Technology, Vol 32(3): 293–299.
  • Levermore, G.J. and Cheung, H. (2012). A low order canyon model to estimate the influence of canyon shape on the maximum Urban Heat Island effect. BSERT. Published online before print January 18, 2012, doi: 10.1177/0143624411417899
  • Cheung, H., Levermore, G.J. and Watkins, R. (2010). A low cost, easily fabricated radiation shield for temperature measurements to monitor dry bulb air temperature in built up urban areas. Building Services Engineering Research and Technology, Vol 31(4): 371–380.

Solar data

  • Tham, Y. and Muneer, T. (2011). Sol-air temperature and daylight illuminance profiles for the UKCP09 data sets. Building and Environment, 46(6): 1243–1250.
  • Tham. Y., Muneer. T., Levermore, G.J. and Chow, D. (2011). An examination of UKCIP CP02 and CP09 data sets for the UK climate related to their use in building design. Building Service Engineering, 32(3): 207–228.
  • Caliskan, N., Jadraque, E., Tham, Y. and Muneer, T. (2011). Evaluation of the accuracy of mathematical models through use of multiple metrics. Sustainable Cities and Society, 1(2): 63–66.
  • Gago, E.J., Etxebarria, S., Tham, Y., Aldali, Y. and Muneer, T. (2011). Inter-relationship between mean-daily irradiation and temperature, and decomposition models for hourly irradiation and temperature. International Journal of Low-Carbon Technologies, 6(1): 22–37.
  • Tham, Y., Muneer, T. and Davison, B. (2010). Estimation of hourly averaged solar irradiation: evaluation of models. Building Service Engineering, 31(1): 9–25.
  • Tham, Y., Muneer, T. and Davison, B. (2009). A generalized procedure to generate clear-sky radiation data for any location. International Journal of Low-Carbon Technologies, 4(4): 205–212.
  • Tham, Y., Muneer, T. and Davison, B. (2009). Evaluation of simple all-sky models to estimate solar radiation for the UK. International Journal of Low-Carbon Technologies, 4(4): 258–264.

Building performance in future climates

  • Barclay, M., Kang, J. and Sharples, S. (2012). Combining noise mapping and ventilation performance for non-domestic buildings in an urban area. Building and Environment, 52, 68–76.
  • Barclay, M., Kang, J., Sharples, S., Wang, B. and Du, H. (2010). The challenge of balancing the demands for a comfortable thermal and acoustic built environment in a sustainable future. Proceedings of the International Symposium on Sustainability in Acoustics. Auckland, New Zealand.
  • Barclay, M., Sharples, S., Kang, J. and Watkins, R. (2012). The natural ventilation performance of buildings under alternative future weather projections. Building Services Engineering Research and Technology, 33(1): 35–50.
  • Du, H., Underwood, C.P. and Edge, J.S.(2012). Generating Design Reference Years from the UKCP09 Projections and their application to future air-conditioning loads. Building Services Engineering Research and Technology, 33(1): 63–80.
  • Du, H., Underwood, C.P. and Edge, J.S. (2011). Generating Test Reference Years from the UKCP09 Projections and their application in building energy simulations. Building Services Engineering Research and Technology, 418132. Doi: 10.1177/0143624411418132.
  • Du, H., Edge, J.S. and Underwood, C.P. (2011). Modelling the impact of new future UK weather data on a school building. Proceedings of the International Building Performance Simulation Association (IBPSA) Building Simulation 2011, Sydney.
  • Du, H., Underwood, C.P. and Edge, J.S. (2010). Modelling the impact of a warming climate on commercial buildings in the UK. Proceedings of the 10th REHVA World Congress, Clima 10, Antalya.
  • Sharples, S., Barclay, M. and Kang, J. (2012). Controlling urban noise in buildings through facade design. Proceedings of INTER-NOISE 2012, 19–22 August, New York.
  • Watkins, R. and Levermore, G.J. (2011). Quantifying the effects of climate change and risk level on peak load design in buildings. Building Services Engineering Research and Technology, 32(1): 9-20.

Adaptive comfort

  • McGilligan, C., Natarajan, S. and Nikolopoulou, M. (2011). Adaptive Comfort Degree-Days: A metric to compare adaptive comfort standards and estimate changes in energy consumption for future UK climates. Energy and Buildings, 43(10): 2767–2778.
  • McGilligan, C., Natarajan, S. and Nikolopoulou, M. (2011). Comparison of energy savings achievable by adaptive comfort standards using the Adaptive Comfort Degree Day. SOLARIS 2011, Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Solar Radiation and Daylighting, 10–11 August 2011, Brno University of Technology, Brno, Czech Republic.
  • McGilligan, C., Natarajan, S. and Nikolopoulou, M. (2011). Use of Adaptive Comfort Degree-Days to compare energy savings from adaptive comfort standards for future UK climates. CIBSE Technical Symposium, 6th and 7th September 2011, De Montfort University, Leicester, UK.

Urban Heat Island

  • Cheug, H., Levermore, G.J. and Watkins, R. (2010). A low cost, easily fabricated radiation shield for temperature measurements to monitor dry-bulb air temperature in built up urban areas. Building Services Engineering Research and Technology, 31(4): 371–390.