ARCADIA: Adaptation and Resilience in Cities: Analysis and Decision making using Integrated Assessment

July 2009 to June 2012

Prof Jim Hall, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford

AIM: To provide system-scale understanding of the inter-relationships between climate impacts, the urban economy, land use, transport and the built environment and to use this understanding to design cities that are more resilient and adaptable.


  • To develop methods for generating of city-scale climate change scenarios that are consistent with UKCP09.
  • To develop and demonstrate new methods to analyse the interactions between climate impacts and the regional and urban economy.
  • To analyse the relationship between the spatial configuration of cities and their resilience to climate impacts.
  • To provide decision support tools for adaptation of urban areas, and to work with stakeholders to demonstrate how these tools can be used to develop strategies for transitions to resilience at a city scale.

Main project outcomes:

  • a more complete understanding of the scope, nature and scale of climate-related risks at the city-scale (focussed on London),
  • a practical methodology for risk assessment and appraisal of adaptation options in urban areas
  • the comparison of adaptation options to help make the economic case for adaptation

Final dissemination:

  • Methodological overview of the project
  • Weather Generator
  • Impact and adaptation case studies
  • Economic modelling
  • Land-use and transport modelling
  • Outcomes and key messages
  • Summary, follow-on projects and next steps

April 2011 Conference output:

September 2010 Joint stakeholder/researcher forum:

Journal Articles

  • Dawson, R.J. (2011). Potential pitfalls on the transition to more sustainable cities and how they might be avoided, Carbon Management, 2(2): 175–188 (doi:10.4155/cmt.11.8)
  • Heidrich, O., Dawson, R.J., Walsh, C. & Reckien, D. (accepted). Urban Climate Preparedness of UK Cities, Climatic Change. International Co-Author.
  • Holderness, T., Barr, S., Dawson, R.J. & Hall, J.W. (2013). An evaluation of thermal Earth observation for characterising urban heatwave event dynamics using the urban heat island intensity metric, International Journal of Remote Sensing, 34(3): 864–884.
  • Walsh, C.L., Dawson, R.J., Hall, J.W., Barr, S.L., Batty, M., Bristow, A., Carney, S., Dagoumas, A., Alistair Ford, A.C., Harpham, C., Tight, M. Watters, H. & Zanni, A. (2011). Assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation in cities. Urban Design and Planning. 164(2): 75-84.
  • Crawford-Brown, D, Syddall, M., Guan, D., Hall, J., Li, J., Jenkins, K. & Beaven, R. (2013). Vulnerability of London’s Economy to Climate Change: Sensitivity to Production Loss. Journal of Environmental Protection, In Press.
  • Jenkins, K., Hall, J.W., Glenis, V., Kilsby, C., McCarthy, M., Goodess, C., Smith, D., Malleson, N. &  Birkin, M. (2014). Probabilistic spatial risk assessment of heat impacts and adaptations for London. Climatic Change, 124(1): 105–117. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1105-4
  • Jun Li, Crawford-Brown, D., Syddall, M. & Guan, D. (2013). Modelling imbalanced economic recovery following a natural disaster using input-output analysis, Risk Analysis.
  • Davoudi, S., Brooks, E & Mehmood, A. (2013). Evolutionary resilience and strategies for climate adaptation, Planning Practice and Research, B(3), forthcoming.
  • Davoudi, S. (2012). Climate risk and security: New meanings of ‘the environment’ in the English planning system, European Planning Studies, 20(1): 49–69.
  • Batty, M. (2013). Visually-Driven Urban Simulation: Exploring Fast and Slow Change in Residential Location, Environment and Planning A, forthcoming.
  • Batty, M. (2011). Modelling and simulation in geographic information science, Procedia Social and Behavioural Sciences, 21: 10–17.
  • McCarthy M.P., Harpham C., Goodess C.M. & Jones P. D. (2011). Simulating climate change in UK cities using a regional climate model, HadRM3 International Journal of Climatology DOI: 10.1002/joc.2402
  • Jenkins, K., Gilsby, M., Hall, J., Glenis, V., Kilsby, C. (2014). Implications of climate change for thermal discomfort on underground railways. Transportation Research Part D. Transport and Environment, 30: 1–9. DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2014.05.002.
  • Walsh, C.L., Roberts, D., Dawson, R.J., Hall, J.W., Nickson, A. & Hounsome, R. (2013). Experiences of Integrated Assessment modelling in London and Durban. Environment and Urbanisation, 25(2): 257–376. 10.1177/0956247813501121

Conference proceedings

  • Dawson, R.J., Walsh, C.L., Hall, J.W., Barr, S.L., Batty, M., Bristow, A.L., Carney, S., Dagoumas, A., Ford, A., Tight, M.R., Watters, H. & Zanni A.M. (2012). Integrated assessment for climate sensitive urban design in London, in Proceedings of International Conference on Water Sensitive Urban Design, Melbourne, Australia.
  • Holderness, T., Barr, S., Dawson, R. J. & Hall, J. W. (2010). An assessment of the UHII metric for Earth observed characterisation of city heatwave events, in Proc. 1st International Conference on Sustainable Urbanization, Hong Kong. 15–17 December 2010. 10pp.
  • Ford, A., Barr, S., Dawson, R. J., Batty, M. & Hall, J. W. (2010). Integrating a gis based land-use transport model and climate Change impact assessment analysis for sustainable urban Development of London to 2100, in Proc. 1st International Conference on Sustainable Urbanization, Hong Kong. 15–17 December 2010. 10pp.
  • Beck, M.B., Villarroel Walker, R., Jiang, F., Demir, I. & Hall J. W. (2010). Re-engineering cities as forces for good in the environment: Paths of transition to distant future alternatives, IWA World Water Congress, 19–24 September 2010, Montréal, Canada. 8pp. International Co-Author.
  • Crawford-, D. & Hanski, J. Climate change adaptation in the energy sector: an interview study in European companies and public organisations. Nordic Adaptation Conference, Copenhagen, 2014.
  • Walsh, C.L., Dawson, R.J., Ford, A.C., Barr, S.L., Hall, J.W. & Batty, M. 2013. Assessing flood risk in London under climate and land use change. International Conference on Flood Resilience Experiences in Asia and Europe. 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, United Kingdom. ISBN: 978-0-9926529-0-6.
  • Walsh, C.L., Ford, A.C., Barrm, S.L. & Dawson, R.J. 2012. A spatio-temporal modelling framework for the integrated assessment of cities. Earth Systems Engineering 2012: A technical symposium on systems engineering for sustainable adaptation to global change, Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research, Newcastle University, UK.

Book chapters

  • Hall, J.W., Dawson, R.J., Barr, S.L., Batty, M., Bristow, A.L., Carney, S., Dagoumas, A., Ford, A., Harpham, C., Tight, M.R., Walsh, C.L., Watters, H. & Zanni A.M. (2010). City-scale integrated assessment of climate impacts, adaptation and mitigation. In R.K. Bose (ed.) Energy Efficient Cities: Assessment Tools and Benchmarking Practices, World Bank, Washington DC. 43–64.
  • Smith, D.A., Vargas-Ruiz,C., & Batty, M. (2013). Simulating the Spatial Distribution of Employment in Large Cities: With Applications to Greater London, in Pagliara, F., de Bok, M., Simmonds D., & Wilson, A. (Editors) Employment Location in Cities and Regions: Models and Applications, Springer, Berlin, 79–106.
  • Batty, M. (2012). Integrated Tools for Planning Support in an Online World, in Bazzanella. L., Caneparo, L., Corsico, F., & Roccasalva, G. (Eds) (2012). The Future of Cities and Regions: Simulation, Scenario and Visioning, Governance and Scales, Springer Science+Business Media B.V. Berlin DOI 10.1007/978-94-007-2518-8_17, 349–358.
  • McCarthy M. P. (2012). Climate Change: Nature and emerging trends. in Solutions for Climate Change Challenges of the Built Environment Ch. 2, Wiley Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
  • McCarthy M. P. & Sanderson M. G. (2011). Urban Heat Islands: Sensitivity of urban temperatures to climate change and heat release in four European cities in Cities and climate change: responding to an urgent agenda, Washington, DC 20433, USA: World Bank 2011.


  • Jenkins, K., Glenis, V., Ford, A.C. and Hall, J.W. (November 2012). A probabilistic risk based approach to addressing impacts of climate change on cities: The Tyndall Centre’s Urban Integrated Assessment Framework. UGEC Viewpoints, Issue 8, 8–11.
  • Dawson, R.J., Hall, J.W., Walsh, C.L., Barker, T., Barr, S.L., Batty, M., Bristow, A.L., Burton, A., Carney, S., Dagoumas, A., Evans, S., Ford, A.C., Glenis, V., Goodess, C.G., Harpham, C, Harwatt, H., Kilsby, C., Köhler, J., Jones, P., Manning, L., McCarthy, M., Sanderson, M., Tight, M. and Zanni, A.M. (March 2010). The Tyndall Centre’s Urban Integrated Assessment Facility UGEC Viewpoints, Issue 3, 8–12.

Press release