CREW: Community Resilience to Extreme Weather

February 2008 to November 2011

Dr Steve Hallett, Cranfield University

Aim: To develop a set of tools for improving the capacity for resilience of local communities to the impacts of extreme weather events.

Objectives:

  • Develop a tool to map probabilistic future EWEs, i.e. flooding, heatwaves, subsidence, wind and lightning;
  • Integrate social and physical research to develop an improved understanding of risk from EWEs at the community level;
  • Identify the risks, vulnerabilities, barriers and drivers that affect the resilience of a local community to EWEs;
  • Assess the adaptive capacity of a local community to respond to the challenges of EWEs;
  • Develop and test new strategic and operational models to support effective planning to cope with both current and future EWEs;
  • Provide new insights into the inter-relationships between stakeholders in the local community (decision makers, householders, businesses) for those with national responsibilities for coping with EWEs;
  • Inform communities of the risks and options for coping with EWEs;
  • Create and evaluate the benefits of an interactive, stakeholder-driven research programme.

The CREW project developed a set of tools for improving the resilience of local communities in SE London to the impacts of extreme weather events.

  • Building Retrofit Toolkit. To assist when choosing retrofit adaptations to reduce dwelling overheating during heat wave periods, whilst also considering the effect on annual heating energy use and cost.

Other web-based tools were developed but can not be made available publicly due to IPR restriction. Please contact Steve Hallett for more information:

For householders:

Householders were key stakeholders for CREW research with timeframes of concern limited to relatively few years.

  • Integrated Risk: Householder prototype – Show my property and the results of modelling for that area.
  • Property value: House Price Impacts query tool – Allow a householder to inspect the possible impacts of extreme flood events on their house price.

For Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs):

Many SMEs do not have specialised capacity within their workforce for developing strategies for adaptation and resilience to the changing climate. CREW tools for SMEs are designed to show how results can be applied at an appropriate geographical scale.

  • Flooding: A decision makers mapping tool – allows a community decision maker the tools to inspect rapidly a neighbourhood or community.
  • Water Resource Shortages for London – allows identification of the critical demand saving thresholds in London under a range of climate change scenarios and changes in water demand.
  • Property value: House price impacts mapping tool – allows a community decision maker the tools to inspect the possible impacts of extreme flood events on house prices.
  • Heatwave: Impact modelling for London – allows identification of the critical temperature thresholds for heatwaves in the London study area under a range of future scenarios

April 2011 Conference output:

November 2011 CREW Final project assembly and dissemination event

  • Porritt, S.M., Cropper, P.C., Shao, L. & Goodier, C.I. Ranking of interventions to reduce dwelling overheating during heat waves. Energy and Buildings. In Preparation.
  • Chen, A.S., Djordjevi, S., Burton, A., Blenkinsop, S., Fowler, H.J. & Kilsby, C.G. Flood modelling and hazard assessment of extreme pluvial events in large urban areas. Special issue on ICE Proceedings for flood modelling. In preparation.
  • Pryce, G. & Chen, Y. Environmental risk: Flooding. International Encyclopaedia of Housing and Home. Elsevier, 2012. In Press.
  • Pryce, G. & Chen, Y. Flood risk and the consequences for housing of a changing climate: An international perspective. Risk Management, February 2012. In Press.
  • Mullins, A. & Soetanto, R. 2011. Enhancing community resilience to flooding through social responsibility. Special Issue of the International Journal of Safety and Security Engineering. Social and economic impacts of flooding. In Press.
  • Blenkinsop, S., Zhao, Z., Quinn, J., Berryman, F., Thornes, J., Baker, C., Fowler, H.J. Downscaling future wind hazard for SE London using the UKCP09 regional climate model ensemble. Submitted to Climate Research.
  • Blenkinsop, S., Zhao, Z., Quinn, J., Berryman, F., Thornes, J., Baker, C. & Fowler, H.J. Downscaling future wind hazard for SE London using the UKCP09 regional climate model ensemble. Submitted to Climate Research.
  • Walsh, C.L., Blenkinsop, S., Fowler, H.J., Burton, A., Glenis, V., Manning, L.J. & Kilsby, C.G.Use of probabilistic climate scenarios to assess water resources in the Thames catchment. In preparation for Water Resources Research.
  • Porritt, S.S.M., Shao, L., Cropper, P. & Goodier, C. 2011. Adapting Dwellings for Heat Waves. Sustainable Cities and Society Vol.1 81–90.
  • Porritt, S.M., Shao, L., Cropper, P.C. & Goodier, C.I. Assessment of interventions to reduce dwelling overheating during heat waves considering annual energy use and cost. CIBSE Technical Symposium, De Montfort University, Leicester UK – 6th and 7th September 2011.
  • Mullins, A. & Soetanto, R. 2011. Exploring the effect of perceptions of social responsibility on community resilience.
  • In Flood Hazards, Impacts and Response for the Built Environment, Proverbs, D.G., Lamond, J. (eds.). In Press.
  • Mullins, A. & Soetanto, R. 2011. The impact of perceptions of social responsibility on community resilience to flooding events. Proceedings of TIEMS Conference, 7–10 June, Bucharest Romania.
  • Mullins, A. & Soetanto, R. 2011. The Roles of Social Responsibility for Enhancing Community Resilience to Extreme Weather. World Conference on Disaster Management, 19-22 June, Toronto, Canada.
  • Wedawatta, G., Ingirige,B., Jones,K. & Proverbs, D. 2011. Extreme Weather Events and construction SMEs: Vulnerability, impacts and responses Structural Survey, 29(2), 362–375
  • Ingirige, B. & Wedawatta, G. 2011. Impacts of flood hazards on small and medium companies: Strategies for property level protection and business continuity in Proverbs, D., Lamond, J., Hammond, F. & Booth, C. (Eds.) Flood Hazards, Impacts and Responses for the Built Environment. London, Routeledge.
  • Jones, K., Ali, F., Brydston, H. & Cooper, J. 2011. Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptive Capacity of Octavia’s Housing Stock. Report for Octavia Housing.
  • Ingirige, B & Wedawatta, G. 2011. SME resilience to extreme weather events: important initiatives for informing policy making in the area.
  • International Conference in Building Resilience: Annual conference of the International Institute for Infrastructure Renewal and Reconstruction (IIIRR), Kandalama, Sri Lanka.
  • Ali, F. Community Resilience to Climate Change: Communicating risk in Local Government. Paper presented to Communicating Climate Change’ Local Government Group event in London on 23 March, 2011
  • Wedawatta, G., Ingirige, B. & Amaratunga, D. 2011. Case study as a research strategy: Investigating extreme weather resilience of construction SMEs in the UK. ARCOM Doctoral Workshop Building resilience and project management, International Conference of Disaster Resilience Kandalama, Sri Lanka.
  • Chen, Y., Pryce, G. & Mackay, D. Flood risk, climate change and housing economics: The four fallacies of extrapolation. Adam Smith Research Foundation Working Papers Series 2011:02.
  • Pryce, G., Chen, Y. & Galster, G. 2011. The impact of floods on house prices: An imperfect information approach with myopia and amnesia. Housing Studies, 26(2) 259–279
  • Rose, C. B., Proverbs, D. G., Manktelow, K. I. & Booth, C. A. 2011. Improving community resilience: education, empowerment or encouragement? in Flood Hazards: Impacts and Responses for the Built Environment Lamond, J., Booth, C., Hammond, F. & Proverbs, D. CRC Press, Taylor and Francis Group.
  • Chen, Y., Pryce, G., Fingleton, B., Chen, A. & Djordjevic, S. 2011. Implications of Rising Flood Risk for Residential Real Estate Prices and the Location of Employment. Annual Conference of European Real Estate Society ERES. Won the “ERES Awards 2011 – JPR Award for Best Paper in Real Estate Economics’
  • Invited workshop on developments and challenges in applied urban and cities modelling. Applied Urban Modelling Symposium, 23–24 May, 2011, Cambridge University
  • Chen, Y., Fingleton, B., Pryce, G., Chen, A.S., & Djordjevi, S. 2011. Implications of rising flood risk for residential real estate prices and the location of employment. Journal of Property Research. The ERES (European Real Estate Society)/ JPR (Journal of Property Research). Award 2011 for Best Paper in Real Estate Economics.
  • Simms D.M. & Hallett S. Development of a web-based portal for supporting community resilience to extreme weather events. 11th International Disaster and Emergency Resilience Conference (IDER), 13–14 April 2011, Florence, Italy.
  • Van Hoek, M. (Supervisor, Hallett, S.) MSc Thesis. Web-Based Spatial Decision Support Tools For Supporting Community Resilience To Extreme Weather Events. Cranfield University, School of Applied Sciences, September 2011.
  • Porritt, S.M., Shao, L., Cropper, P.C. and Goodier, C.I. 2010. Adapting UK dwellings for heat waves. Health Protection Agency Chemical Hazards and Poisons Report. 16, 48–50.
  • Porritt, S.M., Shao, L., Cropper, P.C. & Goodier, C.I. Occupancy patterns and their affect on interventions to reduce overheating in dwellings during heat waves. Proceedings of Conference: Adapting to Change: New Thinking on Comfort. Network for Comfort and Energy Use in Buildings, Windsor, April 2010.
  • Porritt, S.M., Shao, L., Cropper, P.C. & Goodier, C.I. Ranking of interventions to reduce dwelling overheating during heat waves. Proceedings of Conference: Passive and Low Energy Cooling of Buildings (PALENC), Rhodes, September 2010.
  • Porritt, S.M., Shao, L., Cropper, P.C. & Goodier, C.I. Building orientation and occupancy patterns and their effect on interventions to reduce overheating in dwellings during heat waves. IESD PhD Conference: Energy and Sustainable Development Institute of Energy and Sustainable Development, Queens Building, De Montfort University, Leicester, UK, 20–21 May 2010.
  • Ali, F. Community resilience to extreme weather events: A finer grained, collective approach. M M RGS-IBG Annual International Conference, 1–3 September 2010. London, UK.
  • Ali, F. Presentation on Resilience and Community Involvement. M. M. Netherlands US Crisis Research Network ‘NUWCReN’ Symposium on Community Vulnerability and Resilience, 23 June 2010. Wageningen, Netherlands.
  • Ali, F. Poster on Community Adaptation in Bangladesh, and Resilience in London. M. M. ICLEI Resilient Cities 2010, 28–30 May. Bonn, Germany.
  • Mullins, A. & Soetanto, R. 2010. Enhancing community resilience through social responsibility. Proceedings of the 3rd International World of Construction Project Management Conference, Coventry University, 20–22 October, 259–268. ISBN 978 1 84600 0409.
  • Mullins, A. & Soetanto, R. 2010. Investigating the relationship between perceptions of social responsibility and community resilience to flooding: a definition, context and methodology. Proceedings of FRIAR Conference, 26–28 May, Milan, Italy.
  • Mullins, A. & Soetanto, R. 2010. Flooding in the Built Environment: The Roles of Social Responsibility and Risk Perception in Extreme Event Decision Making. Proceedings of CIB World Congress, 10–13 May, University of Salford.
  • Wedawatta, G., Ingirige, B. & Amaratunga, D. 2010. Building up resilience of construction SMEs and their supply chains to extreme weather events. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 14(4), 362–375.
  • Wedawatta, G., Ingirige, B. & Jones, K. 2010. Coping strategies against extreme weather events: A survey of SMEs in the UK.
  • RICS Construction and Building research conference (COBRA) 2010 Université Paris-Dauphine, Paris.
  • Rose, C. B., Proverbs, D. G., Manktelow, K. I. & Booth, C. A. 2010. Understanding the psychology of flood adaptation behaviour.
  • FCRM 10, 29 June – 1 July 2010, International Conference Centre Telford, UK. (45th Defra Flood and Coastal Management Conference).
  • Rose, C. B., Proverbs, D. G., Manktelow, K. I. & Booth, C. A. 2010. Psychological factors affecting flood coping strategies.
  • In FRIAR II (2nd international conference on Flood Recovery, Innovation And Response), Milan, Italy 26-28 May 2010 WITPress, pp. 305-310.
  • Baker, C.J., Quinn, J., Thornes, J. The integration of wind storm considerations into resilience modelling. 9th UK Conference on Wind Engineering, Bristol, 20–22 September 2010.
  • Blenkinsop, S., Hallett, S., Truckell, I., Fowler, H.J. The CREW project: Towards a toolkit for the use of probabilistic climate change projections. BHS Third International Symposium, Role of Hydrology in Managing Consequences of a Changing Global Environment, Newcastle upon Tyne, 19–23 July 2010.
  • Burton, A., Glenis, V., Bovolo, C.I., Blenkinsop, S., Fowler, H.J., Chen, A.S., Djordjevic, S. & Kilsby, C.G. Stochastic rainfall modelling for the assessment of urban flood hazard in a changing climate. BHS Third International Symposium, Role of Hydrology in Managing Consequences of a Changing Global Environment, Newcastle upon Tyne, 19–23 July 2010.
  • Blenkinsop, S, Fowler, H.J. & Kilsby, C.G. Supplement to: Interpretation for use of surface wind speed projections from the 11-member Met Office Regional Climate Model ensemble. UKCP Technical Note. Supplement to UKCP09 Technical note on surface wind speed.
  • Pluvial flood modelling and hazard assessment for large scale urban areas. 11th International Conference on Computing and Control for the Water Industry, Exeter, 5–7 September.
  • Blenkinsop S., Hallett S., Truckell I., & Fowler H.J.The CREW project: Towards a toolkit for the use of probabilistic climate change projections.
  • BHS 2010: Role of Hydrology in Managing Consequences of a Changing Global Environment, Proc. BHS Third International Symposium, Newcastle, 19–23 July 2010.
  • Emberson, C. (Supervisor, Hallett, S.) MSc Thesis. An index-based approach to mapping human vulnerability to extreme weather events. Cranfield University, School of Applied Sciences, September 2010.
  • Rose, C., Proverbs, D., Manktelow, K. & Booth, C. 2009. Developing an understanding of the factors affecting the complex process of flood coping strategies in the household sector In: Dainty, a R J (Ed.), 25th Annual ARCOM Conference, 7–9 September 2009, Albert Hall, Nottingham. Association of Researchers in Construction Management, 2, 981–9.
  • Lamond, J., Dhonau, M., Rose, C. & Proverbs, D. 2009. Overcoming the Barriers to installing Property level flood protection – an overview of successful case studies. Road Map Towards a Flood Resilient Urban Environment, 26 November 2009, Paris, (Urban Flood Management Cost Action Network C22).
  • Wedawatta, G., Ingirige, B. & Jones, K. 2009. Climate Change and Construction SMEs: Vulnerability, Consequences and Resilience.
  • in Gattoni, L. P., Poli, T. & Paolini, R. (Eds.) Proceedings of the 8th Workshop and Meeting of the CIB W108 – Climate Change and the Built Environment. Politecnico di Milano, Milano
  • Porritt, S., Goodier, C. I. & Shao, L. 2009. Briefing : Heat wave coping measures for housing. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers: Energy. Vol.162(3) 101–103
  • Pryce, G., Chen, Y. & Galster, G. Theoretical foundations for modeling the impact of floods on house prices. Annual Conference of European Network of Housing Research ENHR, Prague, June 2009.
  • Pryce, G., Chen, Y. & Mackay, D. Estimating the impact of floods on house prices: An application to the 2005 Carlisle flood. Annual Conference of European Real Estate Society ERES, Stockholm, June 2009.
  • Pryce, G., Chen, Y. & Mackay, D. Flood risk, climate change, housing economics, and the four fallacies of extrapolation. Annual Conference of International Sociology Association ISA, Glasgow, September 2009.
  • Chen, A. S., Djordjevic, S., Fowler, H. J., Burton, A., Walsh, C., Harvey, H., Hall, J., Dawson, R. & Wood, G. 2009. The ‘Community Resilience to Extreme Weather’ (CREW) project and pluvial flood modelling. Flood and Coastal Management Conference, Telford on 29 June–2 July 2009.
  • Ingirige, B., Jones, K. & Proverbs, D. 2008. Investigating SME resilience and their adaptive capacities to extreme weather events: A literature review and synthesis. Proceedings of the Conference on Building Education and Research (BEAR 2008). Kandalama, Sri Lanka.