PROCLIMATION: The use of probabilistic climate scenarios in building environmental performance simulation

October 2008 to December 2010

Prof Vic Hanby, De Montfort University

Aim: To develop and implement methodologies for using probabilistic climate projections (UKCP09) in building simulation and other related analytical procedures.


  • The development of methodologies for sampling from the PDFs of climate variables and transformation of these data into hourly time-series data (using the UKCP09 Weather Generator) suitable for dynamic building thermal models, and tabular information suitable for hand calculation methods.
  • Find effective (computationally efficient) methods for carrying out building analysis procedures which take advantage of the probabilistic nature of the climate scenarios.
  • Using case studies, demonstrate the potential usefulness of probabilistic methods in comparison with the conventional stationary climate, deterministic approach.
  • Show how the outcomes of the research can be used for risk-based decision making in the design and refurbishment of buildings and heating/cooling plant.

April 2011 Conference output:

September 2010 Joint stakeholder/researcher forum:

  • V. I. Hanby, S. Th. Smith, C Harpham. The potential for the future use of evaporative cooling in the UK using probabilistic climate projections. CIB World Congress, May 2010.
  • S. Th. Smith, C. M. Goodess, J. N. Hacker, V. I. Hanby, C. Harpham, P. Jones, and A. J. Wright. Influence of probabilistic climate projections on building energy simulation. CISBAT Conference 2009.
  • UKCP09 case study – an example of how UKCP09 data can be used to aid adaptation in the built environment.