Prof Vic Hanby

De Montfort University

October 2008 to December 2010

AIM: To develop and implement methodologies for using probabilistic climate projections (UKCP09) in building simulation and other related analytical procedures.


  • The development of methodologies for sampling from the PDFs of climate variables and transformation of these data into hourly time-series data (using the UKCP09 Weather Generator) suitable for dynamic building thermal models, and tabular information suitable for hand calculation methods.
  • Find effective (computationally efficient) methods for carrying out building analysis procedures which take advantage of the probabilistic nature of the climate scenarios.
  • Using case studies, demonstrate the potential usefulness of probabilistic methods in comparison with the conventional stationary climate, deterministic approach.
  • Show how the outcomes of the research can be used for risk-based decision making in the design and refurbishment of buildings and heating/cooling plant.